Archive for the ‘Pythagorean Wins’ Category

Run Prevention for Real in Cleveland

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Or so says Jim Bowden today at ESPN’s SweetSpot:

This Indians team is not only contending but has the best record in the American League. Are they for real? Yes, they’re for real. I’m not saying they’re going to win the division, but what I am saying is that if they stay healthy, this team will contend into September and should win more games than they lose. The main reason this team is for real is the pitching and defense. The starting pitching is solid, the bullpen underrated and the infield defense is the best the Indians have seen since Jim ThomeRoberto AlomarOmar Vizquel and Travis Fryman played together.

Their run differential bears this out: they enter today with it at +48, 165 runs scored and 117 runs allowed (5.00 scored and 3.55 allowed per game). That represents a .652 Pythagorean winning percentage, which is only slightly lower than their actual .667 winning percentage. This projects out in the neighborhood of  106 wins, which is probably high, but we shouldn’t be all that surprised if they win 90.


Written by jjvedamuthu

May 10, 2011 at 14:00