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Padres Offense says, “There’s No Place Like Not at Home!”

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Padres offense showing signs of life, having scored 6, 13, 7, 9, 8, and 8 runs over their past six games (8.5 RPG).

Why the Padres’ offense?

They’ve been on the road.

Here are Padres home/road splits. Note they score twice as many runs on the road as at home. Also note the .050 higher On Base on the road than at home. Note also the OPS+: above league average.

Here are the National League composite numbers. Note that the Padres’ road splits are better than the league is.

The Padres offense isn’t the problem per se.  PETCO’s black-hole-like effect on offense is the problem. That’s how good Adrian Gonzalez is, for he put up great numbers despite that park, but it still produced a huge skew in his career stats.

The problem can be looked at the other way, too, though: Padres pitching is worse on the road, but only by a half a run a game. So, they can score more than they give up on the road at times. Aaron Harang is another  indicator of the PETCO effect, though we are still screaming “Small sample size” about him just yet.

All this reduces to: they are almost the same team as last year, but without Adrian Gonzalez. But they can win some games with a little more luck, for their pitching is good, the home park makes it great, and their bullpen is one of the five  best in the NL (Giants, Braves, Phillies, and Marlins have all been good, too).

They could still be an interesting spoiler in the NL West if they continue to produce on the road.

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Written by jjvedamuthu

May 17, 2011 at 17:43

Posted in Padres

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